The U.S. election and Latin America, with Julián Ventura

The U.S. election and Latin America, with Julián Ventura

On Thursday, 24 October, an audience of business leaders, policymakers, and academics gathered for a Business Breakfast hosted by Canning House, in which former Mexican diplomat Julián Ventura delivered a thought-provoking presentation on the upcoming United States' elections, examining their implications for North America and Latin America. With the election shaping up to be, in his words, “not a national contest,” but rather one that could hinge on tens of thousands of votes across seven key states, Ventura shared insights on the profound geopolitical and economic stakes surrounding this moment.

Ventura's assessment of the complex U.S.-Latin America relationship came during a “particularly fluid time” for global politics and economic stability. He underscored how this election carries high stakes for the entire Latin American region — especially for Mexico, which he put forward “has two elections this year,” given its interconnected fate with the U.S.

Ventura outlined the historical depth of North American interdependence, pointing to how the North American market—the largest in the world—represents nearly $900 billion in annual trade between the U.S. and Mexico. With more than 38 million people of Mexican origin in the U.S., the “deep, deep” ties encompass economic productivity, shared cultural heritage, and intertwined fates.

He remarked with emphasis that there are more Mexicans in the U.S. than Chileans in Chile, underscoring the scale of migration and interconnectedness. However, this has fuelled an “aggressive debate” over immigration, where states increasingly seek to exercise their own policies on immigration enforcement, often challenging federal oversight.

Ventura’s analysis expanded to trade and investment, noting that the U.S. remains Mexico's largest foreign investor, with Europe second and China rising. He further described how the USMCA agreement spurred discussions on supply chain resilience and near-shoring, making North America a premier destination for international investors, particularly as Asia looks to diversify.

In broader terms, Ventura spoke on immigration policies under different U.S. administrations. He characterised Trump’s approach as highly “transactional,” marked by sanctions and tariffs, and leading to a politicised and polarised debate. By contrast, Biden’s policy, he explained, sought a return to “strategic” immigration reform, but ongoing political pressures in the U.S. and Europe are amplifying migration challenges and raising civil liberties concerns.

The conversation turned to Latin America’s pressing issues, with Ventura highlighting Venezuela, where he observed an “increasingly entrenched” Maduro regime and a deadlocked political situation. He further noted the need for international cooperation to address Haiti’s instability, where no institutional framework has yet managed to bring stability. Meanwhile, U.S. policy in Latin America often falters, he argued, due to shifting political priorities rather than long-term strategies, leaving infrastructure and social investments vulnerable to political whims—a persistent “Achilles’ heel” for regional development.

Turning to China’s influence, Ventura provided explained Latin America’s reliance on China for trade, particularly in commodity-driven economies, while also noting China’s rising investment in Mexican manufacturing, a sector essential to North America’s economic integration. He highlighted that engagement with China is vital for Latin America to tackle critical issues like semiconductors, drug trafficking, and the environment.

Reflecting on the U.S. economic landscape, Ventura drew historical comparisons, likening the current situation to Japan’s economic rivalry with the U.S. in the Reagan era. He suggested that decoupling and diversifying supply chains—such as Apple’s dependency on China—will take years, posing strategic challenges for economies worldwide.

The event concluded with an interactive Q&A session, where participants probed further into Ventura’s views on Latin America’s future. Reflecting on the many challenges and potential paths forward, Ventura’s remarks urged attendees to recognise the gravity of this geopolitical moment and the need for robust, strategic alliances in the Americas.

During the Q&A, attendees addressed key issues like nearshoring, political polarisation, and the potential for strengthened U.S.-Mexico ties on strategic industries amid the 2026 USMCA review. Questions also covered whether the U.S. would tolerate rising Chinese investment in Mexico, Mexico's role in critical minerals, and shifts in U.S. policy on Venezuela, especially regarding migration and energy dynamics in the region.

Canning House extends its gratitude to Julián Ventura for his illuminating presentation and to all attendees for their engaged participation in a rich and timely discussion.