Shaping Ecuador’s Future: Politics, Economy, and Security Ahead of the 2025 Elections

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Political Landscape: Uncertainty and Reform

Daniel Noboa’s presidency, which began in 2023, has been marked by efforts to stabilise Ecuador after a period of political turmoil. His administration has focused on security, economic reform, and diplomatic relations, maintaining strong ties with the United States. His attendance at U.S. President Donald Trump’s 2025 inauguration highlighted this alignment, particularly in trade, investment, and security cooperation.

A significant milestone in Noboa’s tenure was the national referendum introducing constitutional amendments, including judicial and legislative reforms and allowing extradition of criminals involved in organised crime. This was seen as a necessary measure against rising drug trafficking and gang violence. However, his reform agenda faced strong resistance from the ‘Correista’ opposition, led by supporters of former President Rafael Correa, leading to political gridlock in the National Assembly.

Noboa implemented fiscal measures, such as increasing VAT from 12% to 15% to finance security initiatives. While necessary for economic stability, these policies faced pushback, particularly from indigenous groups represented by CONAIE, who argued they hurt purchasing power. However, Luisa González, the presidential candidate from the Citizen Revolution Movement, recently signed an agreement with the indigenous group to address their concerns. Meanwhile, Noboa continued to secure the support of right-wing voters who opposed a return to Correa-era policies.

As election day approaches, Luisa González has emerged as a strong left-wing candidate advocating a return to Correa’s policies. A former Minister of Labour, González’s platform focuses on social welfare and economic reform, appealing to voters nostalgic for Correa’s public-sector-driven economic model. However, Ecuador’s political polarisation makes the race highly contested.

Economic Challenges: Stability and Growth

Ecuador’s economy remains heavily dependent on oil exports, but fluctuating global prices, high public debt, and slow diversification present challenges. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a severe GDP contraction in 2020, and while there has been some recovery, economic fragility persists.

Dollarisation, adopted in 2000, has stabilised inflation but limits Ecuador’s monetary policy options. Consequently, fiscal policy remains the primary tool for economic management, with the government implementing austerity measures and tax reforms while negotiating with the IMF to address fiscal imbalances.

To boost trade, Ecuador has signed Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with China and Costa Rica, improving agricultural and fishery exports. Additional agreements with Canada (negotiations concluded in February 2025), South Korea, and the Dominican Republic are under negotiation, aiming to diversify trade partnerships and attract investment.

González, if elected, is expected to take a different economic approach, prioritising public-sector-driven growth, social spending, and state intervention. However, Ecuador’s fiscal constraints may limit her ability to expand social programmes without increasing debt. Her approach to foreign investment, particularly in extractive industries, will be a critical issue, as regulatory changes could either attract or deter investors.

Security: Tackling Crime and Violence

Ecuador’s security crisis has escalated due to organised crime and drug trafficking, turning the country into a key transit hub for narcotics moving from Colombia and Peru to Europe and the U.S. Homicide rates have surged, with cities like Guayaquil and Durán becoming hotspots for gang violence. Since 2019, violent crime has more than doubled, and prison riots have worsened due to gang conflicts.

In response, Noboa’s government declared an internal armed conflict and deployed the military to counter criminal organisations. While these efforts demonstrated strong intent, law enforcement remains underfunded compared to powerful drug cartels, and judicial inefficiencies have hindered successful prosecutions.

The security crisis has also impacted investor confidence, particularly in sectors such as tourism and mining. Addressing these concerns will be a top priority for the next administration. González’s approach to security is expected to combine law enforcement with social programmes aimed at tackling crime’s root causes. However, balancing security crackdowns with human rights considerations and civil liberties will be challenging.

Future Prospects: What Lies Ahead for Ecuador?

The outcome of the 2025 election, which is expected to be a very close race, will significantly shape Ecuador’s path forward. If Noboa secures a second term, he is expected to deepen his economic and security reforms, continuing efforts to attract foreign investment, improve infrastructure, and expand trade agreements. His main challenges will be overcoming political resistance and maintaining public support amid difficult fiscal adjustments.

If González wins, Ecuador will likely see a shift towards a left-leaning economic model with greater social spending, state intervention, and regulatory changes in key industries such as oil and mining. However, her administration would face obstacles in balancing fiscal sustainability with ambitious social policies. Additionally, a potential cooling of ties with the U.S. in favour of alliances with China and regional left-wing governments could reshape Ecuador’s international trade and security relations.

Both candidates will need to address Ecuador’s deep-rooted security crisis. While Noboa has focused on military-led crackdowns, González may seek a more comprehensive approach, blending enforcement with social interventions. Regardless of who wins, strengthening Ecuador’s judiciary, police, and intelligence systems will be essential for long-term stability.

As Ecuador stands at this political crossroads, the election outcome will determine whether the country continues its current economic and security policies or shifts towards a more state-driven development model. The choice Ecuadorians make on 13 April, 2025, will shape the nation’s trajectory in the years ahead.