What’s to come after the UK’s election? – with Rt Hon Jim Murphy

What’s to come after the UK’s election? – with Rt Hon Jim Murphy

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On Thursday 27 June, Canning House hosted its latest Business Breakfast, welcoming Rt Hon Jim Murphy, CEO of political consultancy Arden Strategies and a former Labour Cabinet Minister and Foreign Office Minister, to its Westminster offices.

This breakfast roundtable was attended by a mix of senior diplomats, business people and analysts, keen to participate in the morning’s discussion on Britain’s next government – with the country’s General Election just one week away – and the possible trajectory of its future foreign policy.

Jeremy Browne, CEO of Canning House, offered some brief words of welcome to introduce Mr Murphy and greet other attendees, setting the scene for this interesting discussion.

Mr Murphy began his remarks with a broad overview of the UK’s political dynamics. He explained how power has swung between the country’s two traditionally largest political parties – the incumbent Conservative Party and the Labour Party, the main opposition – but has, for the most part over the last century, tended to favour the Conservatives.

Nevertheless, following this current General Election taking place on 4 July, Mr Murphy described the ambition of the Labour Party, which leads in current opinion polling by a substantial margin, to begin a prolonged new period in government, hoping to lead for at least a decade.

He then discussed the Labour Party’s campaign strategy. Broadly speaking, Mr Murphy described its approach as one of managing voters’ expectations – not promising too much, nor too little – threading the needle of public opinion in an unsettled political environment.

Having learned from its loss in the 2019 election, Mr Murphy said the Labour Party had intentionally created the “smallest moving target” with its policy announcements, leaving it also with multiple routes to power – with the potential for a “jigsaw government” of informal partnerships with other parties even if Labour does not win an outright majority.

So, if Labour wins, what will it do?

Mr Murphy’s assessment was that, in the event of a large majority Labour government, its leader, Sir Keir Starmer, would be a centrist leader, seeking to “turn down the temperature” of British politics, and taking growth of the UK economy as his single biggest priority.

Amongst the levers a Labour government could pull to achieve this, said Mr Murphy, would be leaving “the door very wide open” to investment, and taking a “ferocious” focus on attracting international capital. That could include the organisation of an investment summit within the first months of a new administration.

Other focus areas in its first hundred days would likely be kick-starting it ambitions on the green energy transition, and implementing proposed reforms to planning policy and workers’ rights.

Moreover, a Labour government, Mr Murphy put forward, would also seek to fashion the UK as a “present, active and stable” presence on the global geopolitical stage.

Lastly, he described Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s enthusiasm for relationships with the Americas, describing him as “likely the mostly Latin America-inclined Foreign Secretary for many years,” in the event of a Labour win, as a function of his frequent visits to South America. He explained, though, that the next British government’s priorities would inevitably be on relationships with the United States and other countries like India and Japan.

Questions from the roundtable touched on subjects including David Lammy’s approach to British relationships with Latin America, and their enhancement; ‘Global Britain’ and development funding; where Labour will place its focus in international trade; trade deals with Latin America; a Labour government’s relationship with trade unions; and other topics.

Canning House thanks Mr Murphy for his insights at this latest Business Breakfast, and our audience for their engagement and interest.