The vision of Latin America's leaders, with Andrés Rugeles

The vision of Latin America's leaders, with Andrés Rugeles

On Thursday 17 October, Canning House and Brennan & Partners welcomed Dr Andrés Rugeles for the launch of his newly released book, América Latina: la vision de sus líderes (Planeta, 2024). Dr Rugeles discussed the themes and challenges presented in his work, which examines the megatrends shaping the region's future through interviews and articles, with several former Latin American presidents and other senior thought-leaders participating in the project.

The event attracted a diverse group of diplomats, politicians, business leaders, and academics, all eager to engage in discussions about the path forward for Latin America.

After an introduction by Jeremy Browne, CEO of Canning House, and congratulations from Prof. Álvaro Mendez, Director of the London School of Economics’ Global South Unit, Dr Rugeles began his presentation. “They thought I was crazy!” he admitted, recalling the monumental task of gathering insights from the book’s 106 contributors in such a short time. The result, he emphasised, is a “comprehensive” work, reflecting Latin America’s immense diversity.

Dr Rugeles outlined six key thematic axes that the book explores: poverty and inequality, growth and productivity, the environment, democracy, regional integration, and Latin America’s international role. These axes, he noted, intersect across national, regional, and global levels, with each driving the others.

One key question underpinned his presentation: where is Latin America heading? Dr Rugeles framed this within the broader context of building a democratic, prosperous, and inclusive society, stressing that political will and vision are critical to overcoming the region’s current challenges.

He described the process as complex but not insurmountable, comparing it to India’s efforts in paving an “Indian way” of economic development through investments in human capital and innovation. Latin America, he argued, must similarly forge its own “Latin American way.”

Latin America, he said, has been in a state of “permanent crisis,” most recently exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic and other global upheavals. He described the present as a moment of “epochal change,” marked by fragility, polarisation, and geopolitical shifts.

These global challenges—ranging from climate change to a triple crisis of food, fuel, and finance—are profoundly affecting Latin America, which, in Dr Rugeles’ view, has arrived at this moment “fragile and divided.”

Yet, he remained optimistic. He argued that the region possesses the natural resources, human capital, and economic potential to contribute meaningfully to the global economy. Latin America, he said, is a “region of solutions,” particularly in areas like clean energy, food security, and the energy transition, where it can leverage its vast natural wealth, from the Amazon rainforest to critical minerals like lithium and copper.

Dr Rugeles emphasised that leadership is the missing ingredient needed to turn potential into progress. Long-term ambition, he suggested, must be coupled with pragmatic action, structural reforms, and a commitment to thinking big.

He outlined six key messages for the region’s future, including the need to build a new social contract, promote green and digital development, deepen regional integration, and reimagine Latin America’s role in global multilateralism.

The discussion turned to democracy, with Dr Rugeles warning of growing “democratic disenchantment” in the region. He cited alarming statistics: 69% of Latin Americans express dissatisfaction with democracy, and the rise of “Autocrats 2.0”—leaders who come to power through elections but then erode democratic institutions—poses a serious threat to governance.

Dr Rugeles called for a renewed effort to defend democracy, including reforming political and electoral systems and updating the Inter-American Democratic Charter to combat new forms of authoritarianism.

As the event drew to a close, audience members posed questions on topics ranging from regional integration to the role of organised crime. One notable exchange touched on the importance of the UK’s involvement in Latin America.

Rugeles urged the UK to take an active role, particularly in supporting democracy and investment in the region. He highlighted the potential for UK engagement in areas like energy transition, trade, and education, where partnerships could help empower local communities and promote long-term development.

Reflecting on the challenges ahead, Rugeles maintained an optimistic outlook. “The train is leaving,” he said, underscoring the urgency for Latin America to seize the moment and position itself as a global player. With the right leadership and reforms, he concluded, the region can escape the middle-income trap and chart a path towards a more prosperous future.

Closing the event, Lord Brennan of Bibury, Chairman of Brennan & Partners and an Honorary Vice-President of Canning House, called the work’s achievements “impossible,” its sources “impeccable,” and its insights “indispensable.”

Canning House thanks Dr Andrés Rugeles for his thought-provoking presentation and all attendees for their participation in this stimulating discussion.