Looking ahead at Latin America and the Caribbean, with J.P. Morgan team

Looking ahead at Latin America and the Caribbean, with J.P. Morgan team

On Monday 16 September, Canning House held its latest Business Breakfast, this time welcoming Cassiana Fernandez, Head of Latin America Economic Research at J.P. Morgan, and members of her team, María Lucila Barbeito, Executive Director of Research for Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Ecuador and Luis Oganes, Head of Global Macro Research.

This exclusive roundtable breakfast offered attendees the opportunity to hear from Ms Fernandez and her team about J.P. Morgan’s approaches to Latin America, and how the region’s economics may shape its present and future.

Jeremy Browne, CEO of Canning House, opened proceedings on Monday morning by welcoming attendees at the roundtable, including a mixture of professionals, diplomats and academics, to Canning House’s Westminster offices.

Discussion around the table began with a focus on the United States (US), with its highly anticipated election taking place on Tuesday 5 November, and the potential implications for regional and global markets of a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump victory there. Also discussed were the possible effects upon US-Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) relations in the wake the election. It was suggested that a divided US Congress could prove beneficial for companies; and that, with expectations that the US dollar will remain strong, LAC exports to the US could see a boost.

Conversation then moved to commodities. Prices of metal exports from LAC, with elements like copper in especially high demand at present, were predicted to remain strong, bringing benefits for LAC producers. By contrast, prices for oil are expected to remain low. The centrality of LAC to global food and energy security was also highlighted.

The J.P. Morgan team then offered some analysis on a country-by-country basis. In Mexico, it was observed that uncertainty surrounding ongoing legal reforms has brought a temporary halt to a significant amount of investment in the country. For Brazil, while the country’s economy is expected to remain resilient, inflation would likely remain “high” for some time. While Argentina’s economy was seen to be stabilising, with a positive medium-term outlook, the short-term presents some reservations. Lastly, Ecuador’s efforts at financial consolidation may require further reductions to subsidies and cuts to government spending to meet its financial obligations, and overcome medium-term uncertainties.

Canning House thanks Ms Fernandez and her team for their insights at this Business Breakfast, and our attendees for their engagement and interest.