LatAm Outlook

The Canning House LatAm Outlook

On 11 March Canning House hosted our inaugural LatAm Outlook conference at the Four Seasons Park Lane. Alongside our event partners Ipsos, Itaú, Control Risks and Michael Stott, LatAm editor at FT, the event offered crucial intelligence for any business with interests in Latin America, looking forward to the next 5 years and beyond.

Following words of welcome from Beatriz Araujo, Chair of Canning House, our CEO Cristina Cortes provided an overview of the event's key questions, its themes - politics, economics, social trends and security and corruption - and the common or unique issues affecting countries across Latin America.

Session 1 - the Political Outlook - began with Michael Stott covering the region's big themes. These ranged from the "voice of the streets," to populism, to the increasing importance of China. Following this overview, Michael spoke on each of this LatAm Outlook's focus countries - Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. He covered the pragmatism of current Brazilian politics, the enduring popularity of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico, Colombia's remarkable stability in the face of multiple crises, the debt-ridden challenge for the two Fernández in Argentina, the realities of Chile's slow constitutional reform process, and the political uncertainty of Peru.

Session 2 - the Economic Outlook - saw João Pedro Bumachar Resende of Itaú deliver a comprehensively detailed presentation on the forecast for Latin America's six major economies. On Brazil, João spoke on the positive impact of the current government's reform programme. While in 2019 Mexico's growth was weak, he showed that the forecast for the coming years shows strong potential for gradual improvement. Argentina's current programme is focused on solving its problems with debt, then on getting inflation under control. While Chile's fundamentals remain strong, the country's inequalities are high, and uncertainty may curb growth. Though the Venezuelan crisis poses a risk, Colombia's success in handling its recent challenges also show positives. Finally, Peru's sound fundamentals have kept the economy free from turbulence, but mining investment is now key.

Following a short break, session 3 - the Social Outlook was presented by Alex Gronberger of Ipsos. Alex centered his presentation on things that worry Latin Americans, addressing region-wide trends affecting all Latin America's major economies. He highlighted the ongoing challenges of poverty and extreme inequality, but stressed that the region's governments are doing too little to tackle the problem. Furthermore, Alex showed how Latin Americans' perceptions of their inequality - and its correlation with high levels of corruption - has eroded their trust in democratic and judicial institutions.

Session 4 - the Security and Corruption Outlook - with Daniel Linsker of Control Risks began his presentation with an overview of trends in security and corruption across the region, emphasising that though Latin America has many challenges to overcome the overall outlook is a positive one. The risks presented by common and organised crime are manageable, as are those of corruption provided businesses take an appropriate approach. The country-by-country outlooks offered a similar picture overall, with additional notes of security improvements in Colombia and the positive reception of President Vizcarra's anti-corruption programme in Peru.

Following a summary by Cristina Cortes, highlighting the key conclusions from the conference, the floor was opened to questions. Our audience asked a series of excellent questions covering topics including...

A cultural "disregard of authority" in Latin America ... leaders' handling of social media pressure ... migration, law and order ... the impact of a falling oil price ... potential further escalation of social unrest ... 5G and Chinese influence ... perceptions of climate change ... and protectionism in light of COVID-19

Canning House would like to thank all our attendees for their participation in this conference, which was a great success. We look forward to future LatAm Outlook events!

Want to know more about our findings?

Copies of the LatAm Outlook 2020, an 82-page report including all the unmissable insights from our partners, are now available to purchase!

Visit our shop to get your own copy!

Or read the report online now!