2024 is an important year in Mexico.
On Sunday 2 June, Mexico went to the polls to elect a new President, 128 Senators, 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, eight Governors, Mexico City's head of government, and thousands of local politicians. In a number of ways, it was an unprecedented election for Mexico.
June’s vote saw the election of Mexico’s first female president; was Mexico’s largest ever election; coincided a US election year for the first time in 12 years; and was the first general election test for the Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena, National Regeneration Movement) as incumbent.
Claudia Sheinbaum, Morena's candidate, emerged victorious. She previously headed Mexico City's government from 2018 to 2023, during the presidency of Morena leader Andrés Manuel López Obrador, often known as AMLO. Over his term, AMLO maintained high approval ratings, but could not stand for re-election - he will leave office on 30 September 2024.
Against Sheinbaum, Xóchitl Gálvez was candidate for the Fuerza y Corazón por México (Strength and Heart for Mexico) coalition. Gálvez was a Senator 2018-2023, mayor of a Mexico City district 2015-2018, and was previously a tech entrepreneur.
The Fuerza coalition includes the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN, National Action Party) and Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI, Institutional Revolution Party) - two parties that dominated Mexican politics for nearly a century, until Morena came to power in 2018 - and the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD, Democratic Revolution Party).
In a distant third was Jorge Álvarez Máynez, candidate for Movimiento Ciudadana (MC). Replacing Samuel García as candidate only in January, Álvarez' chances of victory were always vanishingly slim; but his candidacy may have helped to benefit MC's long-term ambitions.
For voters, it was a decision set to span questions of violence and security, equality and economy, institutions, infrastructure, and more.
Every angle on the election.
Five Thursdays in a row, from 25 April, Canning House held a series of in-person and online seminars, tackling all aspects of Mexico's unprecedented, complex 2024 election. We heard from top academics and analysts, business leaders and experts, and got the inside scoop on the politics behind the headlines.
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Meet the candidates.
Claudia Sheinbaum
Claudia Sheinbaum was candidate for Morena. Morena first came to power in 2018, led by its founder and incumbent Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador - commonly known as AMLO. Sheinbaum was Mexico City's head of government from 2018, until her resignation to run for president.
Widely regarded as AMLO's heir apparent, Sheinbaum went on to win the 2024 election in a landslide, having led opinion polling by a substantial margin throughout campaigning.
Sheinbaum has cast herself as a force for continuity, with her "own stamp," pledging to follow "the same principles" as her predecessor - like continued efforts to reduce inequality and poverty, and undertaking major infrastructure projects - while nonetheless asserting that she is "not a copy" of AMLO.
Her style, say analysts, is a more technocratic one than AMLO's; and she is likely to dedicate more attention to Mexico's renewable energy and tech sectors. Prior to politics, notably, Sheinbaum was a climate scientist.
With her victory, Sheinbaum will have to navigate continuing AMLO's so-called Mexican "Fourth Transformation," while attempting to carve out an image distinct from that of her predecessor.
Image: Rodrigo Jardón / Wikimedia CC BY-SA 4.0
Xóchitl Gálvez
Xóchitl Gálvez, a self-made tech entrepreneur from an Indigenous, working class background, was considered a business-friendly candidate, keen to open up to more private investment in areas like energy and technology. Her rise in politics was described by some analysts as "meteoric."
Gálvez' campaigning was unconventional at times. She knocked on the door of AMLO's daily mañanera press conference, and dressed in a dinosaur costume in the Senate, branding a government bill a "Jurassic Plan." A public feud with AMLO seemingly helped to catapult her into wider public consciousness.
She claimed AMLO's government represents "corruption" and an "inability to govern," criticising its record on issues like violent and organised crime and healthcare.
Ultimately, Gálvez was unable to overcome the electoral hurdle of upturning the huge popularity and whirring political machine of Morena.
Gálvez' leadership of Fuerza y Corazón por México also presented potential challenges. Its three parties, the PAN, PRI and PRD, represented a broad coalition of distinct political forces, with all facing high disapproval rates among Mexicans. Coordinating their aims would require delicate negotiation - with Gálvez promising a staunch political independence.
Image: EneasMx / Wikimedia CC BY 4.0 DEED
Jorge Álvarez Máynez
Finishing in a distant third place, Jorge Álvarez Máynez' was candidate for the centre-left Movimiento Ciudadano (Citizen Movement, MC) party.
Álvarez was a latecomer to Mexico's presidential contest, replacing Samuel García - who left the race to return to governing the northern state of Nuevo León - only in January 2024.
That left Álvarez in an unusual position. He was polling at less than 10% on voter intention, and suggested in January that "8 out of 10" Mexicans had never heard of him.
As he put it, though, "our fight is not for the next election." Álvarez instead inhabited a role of "uncomfortable rival," questioning Mexico's political establishment and, perhaps, setting up future success through appeals to young voters.
Álvarez' candidacy may have helped to boost MC's drive for seats in Congress, carving out space in a field likely dominated by Morena and the Fuerza coalition parties. Moreover, MC already governed two strategic states in Mexico: Nuevo León and Jalisco - and secured the governorship of the latter for another term.
For Álvarez, all this contributed to a longer-term vision: to "change the system" in Mexican politics.
Image: EneasMx / Wikimedia CC BY 4.0 DEED
Still want to learn more?
The Canning House LatAm Outlook comprehensively covers Mexico, along with five other top Latin American economies, across seven chapters: Latin America's place in the world, and its politics, economics, society, risk, environment and commerce in 2024.
In a complex year, the LatAm Outlook includes everything you need to know about Latin America, in one place.
The Mexico 2024 Seminar Series is produced by Susana Berruecos. This page was designed by Freddy Nevison-Andrews.
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