Chavismo at a crossroads: Latin American diplomacy and Venezuela’s political conflict

Chavismo at a crossroads: Latin American diplomacy and Venezuela’s political conflict

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The reported fraudulent election results in favour of Nicolás Maduro and the widespread condemnation by the West should not surprise a reader familiar with the situation in Venezuela.

Two crucial elements in Venezuela’s contemporary political conflict have always been the opposition’s response – which on this occasion has remained unified and firm in its demands for change – and the role played by the largest Latin American economies, namely Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Colombia. The four countries, coincidentally governed by the left with the exception of Argentina, have almost unanimously questioned the result and requested an independent audit.

The lack of international and regional support has led to a decrease of the Chavista regime’s legal authority (potestas) within Venezuela, despite retaining control of the main institutions such as the electoral supervisor (CNE) and the Supreme Court (TSJ). This decrease in legal authority has been accelerated by the lack of support in recent days from leftist regional leaders as well as from political forums like the Grupo de Puebla. Additionally, the regime has lost the moral authority (auctoritas) in favour of opposition leader María Corina Machado, due to widespread allegations of corruption, growing inequality, and violations of political and civil rights.

As a result, Chavismo faces an historic crossroads, with two potential scenarios.

Maduro and his closest allies can follow in Nicaragua’s footsteps, opting for further isolation and internal purges of critical voices. The regime would also hope that the media cycle will leave Venezuela’s conflict to fade into irrelevance after a few weeks, with the recent weak economic recovery doing the rest to maintain them in power.

Should Maduro choose this approach, the informal dollarisation of the economy and subsequent economic improvements we have witnessed in recent months would be negatively affected, leading to a new economic crisis and likely forcing thousands of people to join the more than 7.7 million Venezuelans who, according to the United Nations, have fled Venezuela in recent years.

Alternatively, the Chavistas not fully aligned with Maduro and his strategy may opt for a negotiated transitional government, should they be promised a transitional justice process (including a certain degree of immunity) without fear of retaliation or prosecution.

The democratic transitions led in Chile by Patricio Aylwin and Adolfo Suárez in Spain are examples of peaceful transitions of power, after those countries’ respective autocratic regimes and oppositions were prepared to compromise and live in a peaceful coexistence.

The way forward to avoid a state of paranoia by Chavismo, as well as an unpredictable humanitarian crisis, is Latin American diplomacy. The leadership shown by presidents Lula Da Silva (Brazil), Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Mexico) and Gustavo Petro (Colombia) defending a negotiated diplomatic solution, without the tutelage of the West, China or Russia, is the most positive aspect of recent weeks.

The options for change are very limited, but it is time for the presidents of Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia to show the world their extensive knowledge of the corridors of power and to facilitate a peaceful transition in Venezuela.

Luis Losada

Luis leads Aperio Intelligence’s Latin American and Iberian practice. Prior to joining Aperio in 2020, he worked for a political international business risk and intelligence company. Luis has also worked for the UN in East Africa and Central America in anti-corruption and anti-human trafficking projects. Aperio is an independent corporate intelligence and financial crime advisory firm. Founded in 2014, it is headquartered in London, with a team of 50 people speaking over 20 languages in house, and offices in France, Malaysia, and Romania.