Briefings & Intelligence
26-11-2015: Latin American Weekly Report
Macri triumph heralds biggest regional power shift in a decade
Mauricio Macri will become president of Argentina on 10 December ending 12 years of Kirchnerismo. The economic, political and social implications of Macri’s run-off victory against Daniel Scioli on 22 November are enormous. Macri is promising a profound economic reform, the removal of exchange rate controls, and the restoration of credible institutions. Move too fast and he will face social unrest; too slow and he will face political discontent. The scale of the economic challenge will be all the greater because of the political challenge confronting Macri. The big power shift in Argentina was only at the executive level. Even if he succeeds in keeping his loose Cambiemos coalition together, Macri will have a minority in both chambers of congress where a hostile Kirchnerismo will remain the dominant force.
- LatinNews
Briefings & Intelligence
23-11-2015: Latin American Economy Business report
One to watch: the dollar on 10 December
- LatinNews
Briefings & Intelligence
19-11-2015: Latin American Weekly Report
Ecuador’s Correa turns protests on their head
Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa dropped a bombshell this week by suggesting that the constitutional reform to allow indefinite presidential and legislative re-election which is about to be debated by the national assembly could include a special provision barring him from running again in February 2017. Correa made the announcement against the backdrop of national protests, the sixth against his government so far this year, and with the prospect of at least two more to come, including a general strike, before the year is out. There is no shortage of detractors convinced that this is a tactical move by Correa calculated to distract attention from and undercut support for the disparate protest movement (the unifying theme behind which is opposition to re-election reform). But Correa could be prepared to take a brief break from politics and return in 2021 when the global economic scenario is more favourable.
- LatinNews
Briefings & Intelligence
12-11-2015: Latin American Weekly Report
Mexico: marijuana, Castro and the US
It is not very long ago that the US federal administration would have expressed displeasure at two significant developments south of the Rio Grande this week. On 4 November Mexico’s supreme court of justice [SCJN] handed down a landmark ruling that paves the way for the legalisation of marijuana; the very next day Mexico’s President Enrique Peña Nieto received his Cuban peer Raúl Castro for a three-day official visit, his first since taking over from his brother Fidel in 2006, and proceeded to heap praise on the Cuban government’s achievements while making no reference to anti-democratic and human rights concerns. It would be a mistake to view either development entirely through the prism of US-Mexico relations, but there is no doubt that the legalisation of marijuana in certain US states and the US rapprochement with Cuba played a part.
- LatinNews
Briefings & Intelligence
05-11-2015: Latin American Weekly Report
Not so united: the electoral hangover in Colombia’s ruling coalition
The political fallout from Colombia’s regional elections on 25 October could create some serious difficulties for President Juan Manuel Santos in the remaining three years of his mandate. The Unidad Nacional coalition undergirding his government has looked anything but united during the election post mortem. Rather the results of the elections have exposed a clear rift between the Partido de la U (PU) and the Partido Liberal (PL) on the one hand, and Cambio Radical (CR), led by Vice-President Germán Vargas Lleras, on the other hand. Vargas Lleras downplayed internal coalition divisions but the leaders of the PU and PL have been forthright in their criticism, alleging that he misused his position to gain an early advantage in the race to succeed Santos in 2018.
- LatinNews
Canning Papers
Cuba – Open For Business?: Canning Papers
The possibilities for international businesses in the Cuban market have been greatly restricted by US sanctions and by the Cuban system of economic management since the early 1960s. Both of these are now undergoing a transformation. The restoration of US-Cuban diplomatic relations – announced on December 17th 2014 and eventually implemented in mid-2015 – represents a huge political breakthrough after 54 years, and has heralded some initial easing of sanctions regulations and expectations of further moves ahead. Within Cuba, a process of economic transformation, which began in response to the demise of the Soviet bloc in the early 1990s, has intensified under the presidency of Raúl Castro. The legal complexities, economic pressures and shifting political currents within the US and Cuba create both opportunities and difficulties for international businesses considering the Cuban market. This paper examines the current position and prospects.