Canning Papers

This report examines the potential economic benefits to Colombia of a peace deal aimed at bringing to an end the country’s lengthy internal conflict with left- wing guerrilla groups.

This is something of a bellwether year in the Latin America and Caribbean regions. In countries with presidential and general elections, the outcomes will signal not only the national but also the regional mood toward governments that have been in place throughout the oil-price shock and the drop in commodity prices. Countries such as Mexico and Bolivia, meanwhile, will use their polls this year to take the temperature of the electorate ahead of their presidential and general elections in the next few years. The standout contest will take place in Peru where huge uncertainty surrounds April’s presidential and congressional elections.

There is a growing consensus about the wide-ranging costs of corruption, with several non-government organisations (NGOs) incorporating anti-corruption measures into broader policy directives to reflect this far-reaching impact. In September 2015, the United Nations (UN) included the need to reduce corruption and bribery into its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), which it hopes will guide policymaking in both developing and developed economies. The issue is set to gain even more traction in 2016, when London hosts an international summit focusing on anti-corruption measures.

The possibilities for international businesses in the Cuban market have been greatly restricted by US sanctions and by the Cuban system of economic management since the early 1960s. Both of these are now undergoing a transformation. The restoration of US-Cuban diplomatic relations – announced on December 17th 2014 and eventually implemented in mid-2015 – represents a huge political breakthrough after 54 years, and has heralded some initial easing of sanctions regulations and expectations of further moves ahead. Within Cuba, a process of economic transformation, which began in response to the demise of the Soviet bloc in the early 1990s, has intensified under the presidency of Raúl Castro. The legal complexities, economic pressures and shifting political currents within the US and Cuba create both opportunities and difficulties for international businesses considering the Cuban market. This paper examines the current position and prospects.

In 2010 the British government announced its intention to re-engage with Latin America. Five years on, this report seeks to establish the degree to which the UK has succeeded in this, and how the government can help maintain and accelerate the progress of a revitalized relationship between the UK and Latin America.

Brazil and Mexico, the world’s seventh and fifteenth largest economies respectively, account for 55% of Latin America's population, over half of its GDP and 58% of its exports. Yet bilateral merchandise trade between the two in 2014 was a relatively trifling US$9.2bn, down from a record high of just US$10.2bn in 2012. Despite numerous attempts to forge closer ties over the past twenty years, self-interest has repeatedly scuppered approximation. There are signs, however, that recent engagement may result in a more significant and productive relationship.