Canning Papers

This paper examines the current state of play in Venezuela, starting with an overview of the economy, the political situation and current societal issues, with the input of freelance analyst Kate Parker and Francisco Toro of Caracas Chronicles. It then examines potential scenarios and their implications for the economy and the business operating environment. A near-term improvement in the internal situation is not considered likely. The authors anticipate authoritarian consolidation this year, ahead of a heavily-managed presidential election in late 2018, and little change in economic policy. Absent reform, the economy will remain in a critical condition, but with oil prices sufficiently stable to avert a complete collapse.

This year’s Latin American elections kick off in January with what many in Haiti will be hoping is the end of a drawn out process which began in 2015, in the form of the poll for the final eight senate seats. The electoral process as a whole has been marked by allegations of fraud. While the prevailing attitude now is largely one of pragmatism – the runners-up in the presidential poll have chosen not to challenge the result – with the PHTK’s control of the senate in the balance there is scope yet for further upset.

According to Alicia Bárcena, Executive Secretary of the United Nations’ Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC):
“Latin America must move towards an investment pattern that favours innovation and structural change, while also allowing for economic growth.”

Given the potential for innovation to promote inclusive economic growth, this paper argues that Private Equity (PE) funds should be at the forefront of investment in innovation in Latin America and The Caribbean.

In a referendum on 23 June 2016, British voters gave a clear response to a simple question: ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ By 51.9% to 48.1% they voted ‘no’ – i.e. to leave. The vote led to short-term financial turbulence, political upheaval, a change of prime minister and a cabinet reshuffle. The new government, now led by Theresa May (of the Conservative Party), is committed to delivering the peoples’ will for ‘Brexit’ (British exit), but securing the terms of departure will be a complicated process.

The first year of the third term for the left-wing government led by President Evo Morales began, in 2014, in very different economic circumstances than had prevailed during its first two terms (2006-2013). Bolivia’s robust growth trajectory since 2006 largely had been driven by windfall income from strong demand and lofty export prices for its mainstay commodity exports – natural gas, zinc, tin, silver, and to a lesser extent oil seeds. Steadily rising fiscal earnings supported a continuous expansion of public spending, increased social welfare payments and rising real incomes from successive above-inflation annual wage increases, all of which further bolstered growth.

This report examines the potential economic benefits to Colombia of a peace deal aimed at bringing to an end the country’s lengthy internal conflict with left- wing guerrilla groups.