Briefings & Intelligence

A new era for Guatemala?

The resignation of Guatemala’s President Otto Pérez Molina on 3 September amid corruption allegations, three days before the staging of general elections, led to predictions of a new era of accountability and a sign that the notorious impunity afflicting the country would no longer be tolerated. It remains unlikely, however, that the winner of the 25 October presidential run-off between the victor in the first round, the ‘outsider’ and anti-establishment candidate, Jimmy Morales, and his as-yet-unde- fined rival will be able to live up to these heady expectations.

Confrontation between Colombia and Venezuela escalates as cross-border migration continues

The crisis triggered by the closure of a stretch of Venezuela’s border with Colombia by Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro – invoking the need to act against smuggling and ‘paramilitarism’ – has worsened. Deportations of Colombians and the flight of many more in fear have continued to increase, and Colombia’s President Juan Manuel Santos has failed to get a hearing in the Organization of American States (OAS). While Santos seeks other avenues, Maduro has been raising the stakes.

Guatemala’s Cicig makes the ultimate accusation

The United Nations-backed International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (Cicig) has made the most dramatic claim since its creation nearly a decade ago. Cicig, together with the attorney general’s office (AG), directly accused President Otto Pérez Molina and his former vice-president, Roxana Baldetti, of heading up the corruption ring, ‘La Línea’, uncovered in the tax authority (SAT) in April [WR-15-19] – the first of various scandals to rock the political establishment. Pérez Molina’s Partido Patriota (PP) government is in total disarray after six ministers resigned in the wake of the allegations. The supreme court (CSJ) ordered the 158-member unicameral legislature to determine whether to strip Pérez Molina of his immunity in order to face investigation. The institutional and political crisis comes with just over a week until the general elections on 6 September.

Towards a single digital market

Chile’s Bachelet in fight-back mode

Chile’s President Michelle Bachelet, struggling with low opinion poll ratings, concern over corruption, and a weaker-than-expected economy, is trying to get back on track and get the balance right between adjusting her policies where necessary, on the one hand, and sticking to her guns, on the other. The government’s slogan of the moment is ‘realismo sin renuncia’. This can be roughly translated as ‘realism without surrender’. The big problem for Bachelet is that not all parties within the ruling Nueva Mayoría coalition have interpreted its meaning in the same way.

Venezuela’s supreme court gives Maduro pre-electoral boost

Venezuela’s supreme court of justice (TSJ) has issued two rulings in the last two weeks which are likely to have a significant influence on the legislative elections on 6 December. On 5 August the opposition coalition Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD) expelled the traditional right-wing Comité de Organización Polٕítica Electoral Independiente (Copei) from its ranks after the TSJ imposed a new Copei leadership committee days earlier which the MUD leadership claimed would act like “a Trojan horse” for the “regime”. Then, on 7 August, the TSJ rejected a suit to force the central bank (BCV) to make inflation figures public. Since inflation began spiralling out of control (even by Venezuelan standards) last February, the BCV has stopped publishing figures which, given that wage increases are far from keeping pace, could have reduced support for the government led by President Nicolás Maduro as elections approach.