Briefings & Intelligence

Macri triumph heralds biggest regional power shift in a decade

Mauricio Macri will become president of Argentina on 10 December ending 12 years of Kirchnerismo. The economic, political and social implications of Macri’s run-off victory against Daniel Scioli on 22 November are enormous. Macri is promising a profound economic reform, the removal of exchange rate controls, and the restoration of credible institutions. Move too fast and he will face social unrest; too slow and he will face political discontent. The scale of the economic challenge will be all the greater because of the political challenge confronting Macri. The big power shift in Argentina was only at the executive level. Even if he succeeds in keeping his loose Cambiemos coalition together, Macri will have a minority in both chambers of congress where a hostile Kirchnerismo will remain the dominant force.

One to watch: the dollar on 10 December

Ecuador’s Correa turns protests on their head

Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa dropped a bombshell this week by suggesting that the constitutional reform to allow indefinite presidential and legislative re-election which is about to be debated by the national assembly could include a special provision barring him from running again in February 2017. Correa made the announcement against the backdrop of national protests, the sixth against his government so far this year, and with the prospect of at least two more to come, including a general strike, before the year is out. There is no shortage of detractors convinced that this is a tactical move by Correa calculated to distract attention from and undercut support for the disparate protest movement (the unifying theme behind which is opposition to re-election reform). But Correa could be prepared to take a brief break from politics and return in 2021 when the global economic scenario is more favourable.

Mexico: marijuana, Castro and the US

It is not very long ago that the US federal administration would have expressed displeasure at two significant developments south of the Rio Grande this week. On 4 November Mexico’s supreme court of justice [SCJN] handed down a landmark ruling that paves the way for the legalisation of marijuana; the very next day Mexico’s President Enrique Peña Nieto received his Cuban peer Raúl Castro for a three-day official visit, his first since taking over from his brother Fidel in 2006, and proceeded to heap praise on the Cuban government’s achievements while making no reference to anti-democratic and human rights concerns. It would be a mistake to view either development entirely through the prism of US-Mexico relations, but there is no doubt that the legalisation of marijuana in certain US states and the US rapprochement with Cuba played a part.

Not so united: the electoral hangover in Colombia’s ruling coalition

The political fallout from Colombia’s regional elections on 25 October could create some serious difficulties for President Juan Manuel Santos in the remaining three years of his mandate. The Unidad Nacional coalition undergirding his government has looked anything but united during the election post mortem. Rather the results of the elections have exposed a clear rift between the Partido de la U (PU) and the Partido Liberal (PL) on the one hand, and Cambio Radical (CR), led by Vice-President Germán Vargas Lleras, on the other hand. Vargas Lleras downplayed internal coalition divisions but the leaders of the PU and PL have been forthright in their criticism, alleging that he misused his position to gain an early advantage in the race to succeed Santos in 2018.

Macri in the lead ahead of second round

Few statistics in Argentina are reliable. Ahead of the 25 October first round election, opinion polls indicated that Daniel Scioli, the candidate of the ruling Frente para la Victoria (FPV, Kirchneristas) faction of the Partido Justicialista (PJ, Peronists), was almost ten points clear of his nearest rival, Mauricio Macri, from the centre-right Cambiemos coalition. In fact, the difference turned out to be a little over 2%. Hopes for an outright victory for the Kirchnerista candidate evaporated quickly on the evening of 25 October however. In the run-off due on 22 November, Macri now appears to have the edge.