The New Cold War with Sir Robin Niblett

The New Cold War with Sir Robin Niblett

On Monday 25 March, Canning House was pleased to host Sir Robin Niblett KCMG, former Director and Chief Executive of Chatham House, to launch his recently published book The New Cold War: How the Contest Between the US and China Will Shape Our Century.

The session provided an opportunity for an audience of diplomats, politicians and professionals to hear Robin offer a succinct summary of the thesis of his work, and to ask his view on its implications for Latin America’s place in the world.

Jeremy Browne, CEO of Canning House, opened proceedings by welcoming our guests and briefly raising some key ways in which US-China dynamics “play out strongly” across Latin America; such as the BRICS alliance, Mexico’s weight in trade balances with the United States and China, and regional discourses on global issues.

Robin presented a series of key takeaways from The New Cold War, describing an international relations scenario that threatens to build a “zero-sum world” based not on competition between great powers, but between ideologies.

Concerned less with the build-up of economic might and more with the maintenance or growth of their respective forms of democracy or autocracy around the world, Robin explained how US and Chinese self-images, mutual deep-seated fears, and a reversal from a period of relative friendship all threaten to further transform a competitive world into a divided one.

Looking at Russia, Robin defined its role in the ‘new Cold War’ in two key ways – as a key decision point for China, on whether or not to align over the invasion of Ukraine; and in the spill-over of implications for other actors, including an expansion of Europe’s security focus, and the increasingly vocal roles of the US’ traditional partners in the Pacific.

Contrasting with the twentieth century’s Cold War, though, Robin argued this new Cold War involves more actors, but less alignment. The economies of regions like Latin America, Africa and wider Asia have grown to represent a much greater portion of global GDP, with their constituent countries now both less reliant upon and less willing to explicitly align themselves with the world’s major powers; opening opportunities to play the US and China off against one another in pursuit of their own interests.

Finally, Robin discussed how all these tensions, and the “zero-sum world” they create, make for an adverse environment for collaboration on global challenges like climate change or the threat of future pandemics.

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Discussion then opened to the audience. Questions and comments ranged from the openness of Latin America to Chinese investment; the nature of the competition and its seeming pre-determination; Latin America’s varied political and economic leanings; the road ahead for liberal democracies; and the potential implications of a second term for Donald Trump as US president.

Canning House thanks Robin for his insights, and our audience for their engagement and interest.